TL;DR Last week Microsoft unveiled Majorana 1, a new chip they claim accelerates the timeline for quantum computing from decades to years in the future. It uses a “topological qubit” based on a new state of matter that could unlock scalable, fault-tolerant quantum computing. Google’s Willow chip recently performed a calculation in 5 minutes that would take supercomputers 10 septillion years, demonstrating quantum’s raw power. Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize AI, unlock new scientific breakthroughs and address highly complex business challenges. Quantum is also likely to break encryption and is spurring global competition.
Key Dynamics to Watch
- Uncertain Timing: Experts are divided on the timeline for quantum computing: Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella believes it is just a few years away while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says it could take decades. Quantum chips have to run at hyper-cold temperatures, and error correction and hardware scalability are hurdles.
- Quantum and AI: Quantum computing could revolutionize AI by speeding up model training, optimizing neural networks and addressing complex spaces limited by traditional computing scale. At the same time, AI is being used to address quantum challenges like error correction and hardware design.
- Scientific Research & Discovery: Quantum computing could lead to new pharmaceuticals, better batteries, energy-efficient fertilizers and room-temperature superconductors.
- Business Applications: Complex use cases like financial portfolio scenario optimization, global logistics scheduling and advanced industrial design lend themselves to the power of quantum. Companies will likely access quantum computing through Quantum-as-a-Service (QaaS), like cloud computing.
- Encryption Risk: Quantum computers will eventually break current encryption methods, putting financial transactions, government secrets, and personal data at risk. Tech companies and governments are scrambling to develop quantum-resistant cryptography.
My Take
The Wizard and the Prophet by Charles Mann explores two visions for humanity’s future: Norman Borlaug (the Wizard) championed technological innovation to overcome resource limitations, while William Vogt (the Prophet) advocated for sustainability and responsible consumption.
As a techno-nerd, it’s easy to embrace the Wizard’s mindset. We’re seeing remarkable progress across scientific frontiers including AI, self-driving vehicles, brain-computer interfaces, quantum computing, room-temperature superconductors, nuclear fusion, and space colonization. While some appear imminent and others are speculative, the accelerating pace is undeniable. In AI, we’ve moved past the “AI Winters” of the 1980s and 1990s into an era of frenetic progress. Quantum computing is likely to follow a similar trajectory of delayed but eventual breakthrough.
The Prophet warns us that the path from breakthrough to commercial viability is treacherous. The Concorde’s 1976 launch promised to revolutionize air travel, yet economic realities and sonic booms led to its retirement by 2003. Quantum computing also faces the investing hype cycle, D-Wave Systems’ rollercoaster stock performance, jumping 10x after Google’s announcement only to plummet 60% following a sobering timeline from Jensen Huang.
For business leaders, innovations like quantum call for vigilance. The corporate landscape is littered with organizations that dismissed new technologies (Blockbuster, Blackberry, Kodak) and others that rode them to win new markets (Netflix, Apple, Amazon). Successful quantum computing will transform business but it’s early. Organizations should monitor technological and emerging use cases to determine when the time is right.
The quantum revolution won’t arrive overnight, but it’s coming more likely. The businesses that thrive will be those that embrace the Wizard’s optimism and heed the Prophet’s pragmatism, judging between quantum hype and quantum opportunity.
Dad Joke: Why are quantum computers terrible at telling jokes? Because every time they try to deliver the punchline, they’re in a superposition of being funny and not funny until someone laughs!
Articles
Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip carves new path for quantum computing
“Microsoft today introduced Majorana 1, the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture that it expects will realize quantum computers capable of solving meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades.
The topoconductor, or topological superconductor, is a special category of material that can create an entirely new state of matter – not a solid, liquid or gas but a topological state.
Because there are so many types of plastics, it isn’t currently possible to find a one-size-fits-all catalyst that can break them down – especially important for cleaning up microplastics or tackling carbon pollution. Quantum computing could calculate the properties of such catalysts to break down pollutants into valuable byproducts or develop non-toxic alternatives in the first place.“
Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip
“It performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10 septillion years. If you want to write it out, it’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
So quantum computation will be indispensable for collecting training data that’s inaccessible to classical machines, training and optimizing certain learning architectures, and modeling systems where quantum effects are important. This includes helping us discover new medicines, designing more efficient batteries for electric cars, and accelerating progress in fusion and new energy alternatives.“
Microsoft Says It Has Created a New State of Matter to Power Quantum Computers
“The company has now created a single device that is part indium arsenide (a type of semiconductor) and part aluminum (a superconductor at low temperatures). When it is cooled to about 400 degrees below zero, it exhibits a kind of otherworldly behavior that might make quantum computers possible.
For now, the technology still makes too many errors to be truly useful, though scientists are developing ways to reduce mistakes. Last year, Google showed that as it increased the number of qubits, it could exponentially reduce the number of errors through complex mathematical techniques.”